Posts Tagged ‘china’

The Coming War Over Efficient Allocation Of Scarce, Depleting Resources Worldwide

February 15, 2010 (By Bud Burrell)

– From “Front and Center”, by C. Austin Burrell

**Readers are also invited to visit “Bud Burrell’s Global Markets & Issues Reconnaissance” (at http://www.investrend.com/burrell-recon).**

The last century has seen the global population push past 6 Billion almost without notice or concern. With no focus of leaders of the World on population concerns except from China, current growth rates of population will push global population of the World towards 12 Billion by the year 2050. This projection could give or take a few percentage points absent a global war or other natural disaster that might materially alter the final number.

What sort of World will we live in if this isn’t prevented? Clean water is already becoming a global crisis. Along with this shortage of clean water for consumption and irrigation, there is growing crisis of arable land suitable for production of grains and other vegetable staples, one that increases in severity every single year. 60% of the top soil of the Central Midwestern United States has been depleted by improper and inefficient use and irrigation. The Imperial and Central Valleys of California are being converted to Mesopotamian Desert acreage faster than the conversion of the ancient fertile crescent that once existed between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq.

The Sierra Club wrote a book over 20 years ago titled “Cadillac Desert” about the gross mismanagement of water resources in the fourteen Western States of the US that now reads like prophesy.

What other shortages are extant or projected?

The World’s Oceans are being fished out to a point of not being capable of being replenished. Address the issue of big game fish, and you see a 95% plus drop in their populations in all Oceans, the very fish most eggs come from, particularly Tuna, which don’t begin to breed until they are eight years old. Tuna are on the verge of having been fished out of the Pacific and Atlantic.

The Cod beds of the North Atlantic that fed the modern World for the better part of 300 years are exhausted, and might only be saved by a 5 to 10 year moratorium on fishing in their breeding grounds. This year, there was a dramatic drop in the salmon runs in British Columbia, along with a comparable depletion of salmon and halibut runs in other parts of Canada and Alaska. The latter are the result of commercial fishing fleets using monofilament nylon gill nets that are up to 100 miles in length that the fish can’t see. Where they are used extensively, fish of all varieties simply disappear from the fishing areas, most particularly breeding fish that replenish stocks. [entire post]

Consumer Confidence Figure Should Be The Market Mover Today

August 25, 2009 (By Brewer Investment Group)

– From “The Brewer Blog”, by Brewer Investment Group

Today President Obama is expected to reappoint Fed Chairman Bernanke to another term.  This news did not come as surprise to the markets especially after Bernanke’s upbeat speech late last week regarding the economic recovery in the U.S.  Traders also figured that he would stay on board especially since there is still a long road to recovery before the Fed begins to raise interest rates.  With so many Fed actions yet to be unwound before the U.S. fully recovers from the worst recession in decades, it didn’t make sense to hand the job over to anyone else.

Comments from a banking official in China shouldn’t be ignored by traders.  Overnight a banking official said that governments and central banks have to be wary of excessive cash causing asset bubbles.  This news comes as central banks have to decide whether to up the amount of financial stimulus available or remove some of the excess stimulus still in the system now that the global economy has started to recover.  Look for pressure on China’s equity markets and lower demand for commodities if China decides to curb excessive liquidity.  Weakness in its markets could spread globally.

With the Bernanke news a non-event, traders will be watching the Case-Shiller Housing Report and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figure for direction.  The Case-Shiller Report is expected to show a decline of 16.4%.  This number would be the smallest drop in almost a year.  Despite recent negative economic reports, traders have been buying equities when negative news ends up better than expected.  Traders somehow feel contractions less than forecast are bullish signs.  Investors will also be watching the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figure.  This report is expected to show that consumer confidence rose for the first time in 3 months.  [entire post]

Forex: Dollar Rises As Investors Sell-off Higher Risk Assets

August 18, 2009 (By Brewer Investment Group)

– From “The Brewer Blog”, by Brewer Investment Group

On Monday the U.S. Dollar posted strong gains against most major Forex markets with the exception of the Japanese Yen as investors exited higher yielding assets following an overnight sell-off in the Chinese equity markets.

Early this morning Japan reported economic growth in the second quarter that was below expectations but nonetheless signaled an end to the recession.  This news wasn’t good enough for investors as they want to see sustainable evidence that a recovery is indeed taking place.

Asian markets sold off after the news from Japan with the Chinese market leading the way.  Traders have also become concerned about the Chinese economy.  For months China has been used as a barometer for global economic growth.  Its stimulus plan has led to increased demand for commodities as well as increased stock market and loan activity.  Problems could arise if Chinese regulators decide to tighten up lending and curtail excessive speculation. [entire post]

Congress Considers 20% VAT Tax According To Rumors Of Trial Balloon Today

May 28, 2009 (By Bud Burrell)

From “Front & Center”, by Bud Burrell

According to Neil Cavuto of Fox Business News today, our current Congressional Democratic Leadership has started a whispering campaign to test the waters for a possible 20% VAT tax (value-added tax) on all goods and services sold in the US.  This comes on the heels of a planned Cap and Trade tax program designed to drive the United States off carbon based power sources over the next 20 years.  Here is yet again a devastating tax that crosses all demographic lines, regressive in the extreme, and one which penalizes innovation and production by impairing already weakened consumer and small business segments.

Many do not understand the original general concept of Value Added Taxes.  They were supposed to tax the incremental value added to a product as it went through each stage of production and distribution.   European models were created that “simplified” the accounting burden, by putting the entire burden on the end consumer, with a one-time tax on the sale price of the product.  That was never part of the original design of VAT taxation.  Instead, this rumor proposes an entirely new bastardization of VAT concepts.

We have a brief period to stop this initiative, or we will have to wait for the mid-term Congressional Elections in 2010 to throw these clowns out on their pointed heads.  I certainly would not want to be running for re-election if I signed this proposed bill.  I would expect rotten tomatoes to be thrown at me, in a best case scenario.  Harry Reid is in the run of his life, and he knows the current administration’s policies aren’t helping him. [entire post]

A New Wall Of Worry Is Rising

May 15, 2009 (By Dr. Joe Duarte)

From “Dr. Joe’s Market Diagnosis”, by Dr. Joe Duarte

The S & P SPDR (NYSE: SPY) and the Proshares Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) ETFs had a tough time for the week that ended on May 15, 2009, as the stock market seems to be pricing in another down leg in the economy as policy and legislation initiatives slated for development and likely passage in the next few months are leading to another round of uncertainty.

At the top of the scary stuff list are congressional plans for a busy summer of legislation. Congressional Democrats have an ambitious July agenda, featuring healthcare reform, climate change, annual spending bills and a potential Supreme Court before the August recess.

The Hill.com suggests that this could be the final push of “the busiest stretch of Obama’s first term,” which makes us wonder that means, exactly. Is it a sign that the onslaught of “change” is done? Or are they alluding to the fact that it will take a year to get agreements on all the upcoming legislation? To be sure, the 2010 election campaign for Congress will put a damper on any significant activity. And by the time that’s over, the presidential campaign will be in full swing. [entire post]

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