Posts Tagged ‘recession’

Political Conditions’ Impact On U.S. National Security

October 5, 2009 (By Bud Burrell)

From “Front and Center”, by Bud Burrell

– Rational observers of the current environment of this country are watching as divisive policies championed by the Obama Administration have torn apart important opinions about what this country should stand for, how our Government should operate, what our Constitution and Bill of Rights mean, and much more. The citizenry is torn apart by who has primary responsibility for the education of their children first, how our healthcare systems should be paid for, what energy policies are rational in a period of extreme recession, who should be relied on to protect this country from its enemies, and much more.

The Obama Administration has for the first time in decades managed to wake the American people from their perennial political slumber, and they have chosen to do this while they try to sell an old standard of invasive big government, whose competency and integrity are both non-existent. They try to sell the American people the idea that they should trust the US Government, which has managed (or better, mismanaged) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare with a ham-handedness that boggles the imagination, to handle now their national security, their healthcare, their access to affordable energy, the jobs creation process and more. [entire post]

Without The Next Big Thing This Economy Won’t Likely Perish

September 28, 2009 (By Dr. Joe Duarte)

From “Dr. Joe’s Market Diagnosis” , by Dr. Joe Duarte

– The Nasdaq 100 Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) keeps rising, but you wonder what the market is factoring in at this time, except that maybe there is nowhere else to put money at this time.

Bill Clintons’ presidency coincided with the Internet boom, while George Bush’s low taxes kept his economy in better shape than it would have been otherwise, at least until the end when the housing bubble burst. But aside from anti-growth policies, Obama’s major problem is the lack of something huge to make things move in a big way.

Low interest rates and government programs may have kept the U.S. economy from imploding. But as last week’s market action proves, the thought of the Fed and the government pulling out as the main driver of economic action could lead to major problems in stocks, and the economy.

According to The Wall Street Journal: “this recession is taking a particularly heavy toll on business creation, as sources of small-business funding dry up and would-be entrepreneurs become more risk-averse. When entrepreneurs do launch businesses, they are hiring fewer employees on average. The trends threaten to damp growth in jobs and economic output for years.” [entire post]

Consumer Confidence Figure Should Be The Market Mover Today

August 25, 2009 (By Brewer Investment Group)

– From “The Brewer Blog”, by Brewer Investment Group

Today President Obama is expected to reappoint Fed Chairman Bernanke to another term.  This news did not come as surprise to the markets especially after Bernanke’s upbeat speech late last week regarding the economic recovery in the U.S.  Traders also figured that he would stay on board especially since there is still a long road to recovery before the Fed begins to raise interest rates.  With so many Fed actions yet to be unwound before the U.S. fully recovers from the worst recession in decades, it didn’t make sense to hand the job over to anyone else.

Comments from a banking official in China shouldn’t be ignored by traders.  Overnight a banking official said that governments and central banks have to be wary of excessive cash causing asset bubbles.  This news comes as central banks have to decide whether to up the amount of financial stimulus available or remove some of the excess stimulus still in the system now that the global economy has started to recover.  Look for pressure on China’s equity markets and lower demand for commodities if China decides to curb excessive liquidity.  Weakness in its markets could spread globally.

With the Bernanke news a non-event, traders will be watching the Case-Shiller Housing Report and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figure for direction.  The Case-Shiller Report is expected to show a decline of 16.4%.  This number would be the smallest drop in almost a year.  Despite recent negative economic reports, traders have been buying equities when negative news ends up better than expected.  Traders somehow feel contractions less than forecast are bullish signs.  Investors will also be watching the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figure.  This report is expected to show that consumer confidence rose for the first time in 3 months.  [entire post]

Tales From The Road: Texas Holds Up Better Than U.S. Through Recession

April 28, 2009 (By Dr. Joe Duarte)

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) are companies that are faring well from the resilient Texas economy.

Texas made the news last week as it was the site of some of the more flamboyant tea parties and its governor, Rick Perry, suggested seceding from the Union. But the real story seems to be the resilient economy in the state.

As unemployment rises in the rest of the country, Texas joblessness is much less dramatic, with the state boasting a 6.7% unemployment rate compared to the national rate of 8.5%. Austin was the only city in the state to add jobs in March, with 3300 new positions filled on a year over year basis. Dallas led the state in losses with over 30,000 for the month on a year to year comparison.

San Antonio, where we spent the weekend, offered some interesting observation, clearly providing a mixed picture. Hotels seemed quite busy with the usual gathering of conventions, as well as school band trips, sports tournaments, and sales meetings/workshops, especially for self-employed multiple level marketing outfits. [entire post]

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