Posts Tagged ‘(un)employment’

Predicate Outcome Analysis For The Present Financial Crises

July 24, 2009 (By Bud Burrell)

From “Front & Center”, by Bud Burrell

As we watch the current regulatory paralysis of our elected representatives, the breakdown of our securities regulatory bureaucracies, and the schizophrenia of key elements of our economy, any logical mind is going to be driven into a “If, then” form of logic.  We have major components of our economy that are in catastrophic disarray, ranging from all sides of the energy sector, to job creation, to health care, and to a polarized political process.  The resulting variables provide for a potential meltdown of the most durable economic and political system yet devised in world history, and the disruption of one of the most beneficent, generous, tolerant and kind countries of World history, not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than second best.

As we face crises on every front, from our monetary system, to our political structure, to our economic models, to our fundamental health care, we see more focus on opportunism than on solutions.  We have elected leaders who are more interested in furthering their political agendas than in preserving democracy and capitalism.  What will be the ultimate outcome of this n-dimensional societal train wreck?

Three topics dominate our current environment, those being a breakdown in the financial stability of the US, to a religious fervor driven crusade to have this country unilaterally take on the Carbon Dioxide levels of a world they don’t control, to a drive for a universal health care system that has been shown to not work in all but one place it has been tried, that being Switzerland.  As we look at how each of the problems is being addressed by our current government, we see potential outcomes associated with the options, which on their own legs can’t stand. [entire post]

United Auto Workers As Employer?

May 28, 2009 (By Gary Vassalotti, LIFA)

From “Vassalotti’s View”, by Gary Vassalotti

If you’ve been following the auto industry, you can’t help but notice it’s going through a major transformation.  And part of the transformation is a change of ownership.  But, it’s not the normal change of ownership that companies go through when being put through the financial wringer. When Chrysler and GM come out of the wash, they won’t be owned by their respective creditors — secured or unsecured — or even the current shareholders (which, in a perfect world, would be the case).

Instead, they’ll be owned in large part by the UAW, an organization that most industry observers believe deserve a large part of the blame for the demise of the industry giants.  Why, then, is the UAW getting any ownership position at all?  How can it be that bond holders and other deserving parties — who should own the assets — are left-out in the cold?

But, let’s put those “minor”, “inconsequential” questions aside, and examine this (apparent) new industry structure more closely:

We’ll now have two of the three (US-owned?) automakers actually owned in large part by the same organization that’s responsible for negotiating labor costs? TWO out of THREE?  Am I the only one that sees a major conflict of interest here?  Or, to put it another way, are you invested in Ford? [entire post]

The Great Thing About A Recession

(By Genevieve Hawkins)

From “Hawkins’ Eye On The Market”, by Genevieve Hawkins

Once upon a time, money was not thought of in terms of the dollar increments that are used now. Instead it had humble origins as a bargaining tool, first as labor was exchanged for labor, then as labor became exchanged with an object of a set value. Onwards money moved to its present migration as an object of exchange which has no underlying set value, which may be exchanged for other objects of exchange that also have no underlying set value.

One of the greatest things about a recession is it reminds many people that money is only money, and money is, in its current incarnation, a complete and total illusion. Despite the recent optimism on the stock market, the numbers of unemployed has steadily climbed, and average private sector hours worked weekly has declined to 33.2. Neither of these figures is likely to rebound in the near future. With more people working less or unemployed, they may be able to spend time with friends and family, and doing things that provide them with greater fulfillment than that which had been gained through their exchange of labor. [entire post]

The Reality Of Cap And Trade Bites, From ‘Congressional Watch’ Today

May 20, 2009 (By Bud Burrell)

From “Front & Center”, by Bud Burrell

I have written in the past about the harsh realities of the Cap and Trade Bill and its impact as written. Today, the Congressional Watch put out its estimates of the impact of such legislation on the American economy in the near term.

Their first estimate is that the GDP would be reduced by $2 Trillion minimum every year beginning with its implementation.

The price of every vehicle manufactured to the new emissions standard would be upped by $1300 per vehicle.

Approximately 1.1 Million jobs would be lost, before application of economic magnification to a multiple of these losses.

The price of Gasoline would jump by 76%.  The price of electricity would jump by 95%.

Overall, every American family would be paying over $3100 a year for these new programs best case, a staggering number for the average family, a hit they can’t absorb. [entire post]

Is It Inflation Or Deflation Here?

May 9, 2009 (By Genevieve Hawkins)

From “Hawkins’ Eye On The Market”, by Genevieve Hawkins

Here’s something to ponder, other than the overhyped swine flu pandemic: if flooding the market with liquidity is supposed to lead to hyperinflation, why haven’t prices on goods and services started to skyrocket yet? So far Ben Bernanke has injected over $1 trillion into the markets, and Congress has had to raise the debt ceiling to keep the accounting in line. The infusions of cash were becoming so routine that they weren’t always reported, except by angry political commentators ranting about how much future taxpayer generations will have to be paying for this.

Traditionally such an influx of money might be expected to lead to Weimer style hyperinflation, where prices rise so fast that they could force a currency devaluation. Yet the March Consumer Price Index actually slipped 0.4% year over year, the first such decline since 1955. And a recent survey of small business owners found that none of them intended to increase prices in the near future. [entire post]

Chrysler’s Bankruptcy — Beyond the Obvious

May 3, 2009 (By Dr. Joe Duarte)

From “Dr. Joe’s Market Diagnosis”, by Dr. Joe Duarte

Ford (NYSE: F) has proven, at least so far, that staying away from government aid can be beneficial if you’re a U.S. automaker, especially when Chrysler is now bankrupt, and the consensus is that its “controlled” demise will be a model for what happens to General Motors (NYSE: GM).

President Obama bought Chrysler some time. But the automaker is clearly still in big trouble, and the implications of its failure, should it come to pass, extend way beyond the U.S. borders, and for more than the obvious reasons.

Chrysler filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will attempt to reorganize its businesses after gaining concessions from labor unions and crafting out a deal with Italy’s Fiat. Yet, if you look at the situation closely enough, you see the potential for more trouble ahead for the company, as well as others with whom it does business. [entire post]

Tales From The Road: Texas Holds Up Better Than U.S. Through Recession

April 28, 2009 (By Dr. Joe Duarte)

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) are companies that are faring well from the resilient Texas economy.

Texas made the news last week as it was the site of some of the more flamboyant tea parties and its governor, Rick Perry, suggested seceding from the Union. But the real story seems to be the resilient economy in the state.

As unemployment rises in the rest of the country, Texas joblessness is much less dramatic, with the state boasting a 6.7% unemployment rate compared to the national rate of 8.5%. Austin was the only city in the state to add jobs in March, with 3300 new positions filled on a year over year basis. Dallas led the state in losses with over 30,000 for the month on a year to year comparison.

San Antonio, where we spent the weekend, offered some interesting observation, clearly providing a mixed picture. Hotels seemed quite busy with the usual gathering of conventions, as well as school band trips, sports tournaments, and sales meetings/workshops, especially for self-employed multiple level marketing outfits. [entire post]

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